Eli Lilly (LLY) Q4 2025 results
Eli Lilly on Wednesday reported fourth-quarter earnings and sales and 2026 guidance that beat estimates as demand surges for its blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro.
The pharmaceutical giant expects its revenue to be between $80 billion and $83 billion in 2026. Analysts expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.
Lilly also expects adjusted earnings for the year to be between $33.50 and $35 per share. According to LSEG, this compares to analyst estimates of $33.23 per share.
The forecast is in stark contrast to the prospects of the competition Novo Nordiskwhich is also struggling with lower prices in the U.S. after both companies reached landmark deals with President Donald Trump to reduce the cost of obesity and diabetes drugs. Unlike Lilly, Novo warned Tuesday that sales and profits will fall as much as 13% this year as prices fall in the U.S. and exclusivity for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs expires in China, Brazil and Canada.
At the midpoint of Lilly’s sales forecast, the company is calling for 25% sales growth this year.
The bright outlook comes days after Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC in an exclusive interview that he expects upcoming federal Medicare coverage of obesity treatments to expand the U.S. market for these drugs this year, saying it would be a “big multiplier for the eligible pool” of patients.
In an earnings presentation Wednesday, Lilly cited several factors that will benefit the company this year, including Medicare coverage, continued global demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, and the expected launch of its GLP-1 obesity pill in the second quarter, pending U.S. approval.
But Lilly said it would be hit by a global price decline in the low to mid-teens due to, among other things, the Trump deal, new direct-to-consumer rates for Zepbound and lower Medicaid prices for some older products.
Lilly is working to assert its dominance in the booming market for the drugs, so-called GLP-1, while Novo expects an explosive U.S. launch of its new Wegovy obesity pill. According to the presentation, ahead of this fourth-quarter launch, Lilly’s share of the U.S. market for obesity and diabetes drugs increased to 60.5% in the fourth quarter, up 2.6% from the previous quarter. Novo’s market share was 39.1% in the fourth quarter.
Mounjaro reported revenue of $7.41 billion in the quarter, up 110% from the same period last year. U.S. sales for Mounjaro were $4.1 billion, increasing 57% as demand increased but realized prices were lower. These numbers exceeded analysts’ expectations for the quarter, according to StreetAccount.
Zepbound, which launched about three years ago, had U.S. sales of $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter. This is 122% more than in the same period last year, as demand for the drug also increased while realized prices fell. According to StreetAccount, analysts expected US sales of $3.91 billion for Zepbound.
Here’s what Eli Lilly reported for the fourth quarter compared to Wall Street’s expectations, based on an analyst survey from LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $7.54 adjusted vs. $6.67 expected
- Revenue: $19.29 billion versus expected $17.96 billion
Shares of Eli Lilly rose more than 7% in premarket trading.
The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $19.29 billion, up 43% from the same period last year.
Sales in the US rose to $12.9 billion. Eli Lilly said this was due to a 50 percent increase in the volume – or number of recipes or units sold – of its products, primarily for Mounjaro and Zepbound. This was partially offset by lower realized prices for these drugs, the company said.
The pharmaceutical giant posted fourth-quarter net income of $6.64 billion, or $7.39 per share. That compares with net income of $4.41 billion, or $4.88 per share, a year ago.
Excluding one-time items related to the value of intangible assets and other adjustments, Eli Lilly reported fourth-quarter profit of $7.54 per share.
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Novo and Lilly’s deals with Trump are expected to ultimately increase prescriptions but ultimately hurt overall sales.
Under the agreements, Lilly and Novo will reduce prices for these treatments for Medicare and Medicaid recipients in 2026 and offer them directly to consumers at a discount on the Trump administration’s direct-to-consumer platform, TrumpRx, which has not yet launched.
In return, both companies also receive a three-year customs exemption.
In the interview with CNBC on Friday, Lilly’s Ricks admitted that there will be “a price reduction” as part of the drug pricing agreement earlier this year. However, he said volume growth of the company’s drugs “will pick up in the second half of the year.”
