What to expect from Pharma at the JPM conference

Heidi Overton, Novo Nordisk CEO Maziar “Mike” Doustdar, Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick listen as President Donald Trump announces a deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to lower prices for GLP-1 weight loss drugs during an event in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, Nov. 6, 2025.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

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Next week I will be attending the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference – the largest gathering of biotech and pharmaceutical executives, investors and analysts in the United States

The conference often sets the tone for the coming year and provides an initial overview of what the healthcare industry might look like in 2026. Executives from companies large and small are expected to release key business and drug pipeline updates, announce high-profile M&A deals and weigh in on industry sentiment more than a year after Trump 2.0.

This backdrop looks different than what many in the industry feared at the start of 2025. Several major drugmakers ended the year with landmark drug pricing deals with President Donald Trump — and a repeal of his planned sector-specific tariffs. As a result, drug prices and other policies are unlikely to dominate executives’ conversations with investors for the first time in years.

Wall Street will likely focus on the drug industry’s other problem: a roughly $300 billion patent cliff by the end of the decade. Blockbuster drugs like Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer’s blood thinner Eliquis and Merck’s top-selling cancer immunotherapy Keytruda will face competition from cheaper rivals in the coming years, and the companies are struggling to make up for those sales declines.

For example, Bristol Myers Squibb is the most affected by the impending cycle of loss of exclusivity, according to a note from JPMorgan analysts in late December. But the company has several data evaluations this year that will provide clarity about its ability to grow after 2028.

Investors will likely have questions about the upcoming Alzheimer’s psychosis trials – the so-called Adept program – for Bristol Myers Squibb’s Cobenfy, a prescription drug approved in late 2024 to treat adults with schizophrenia. JPMorgan analysts see “a reasonable probability of success” for these studies.

For MerckKeytruda’s loss of exclusivity seems to be getting easier to deal with. In September, a more convenient subcutaneous form of the drug received U.S. approval (Keytruda is traditionally administered intravenously). This new form is expected to protect about 20% to 30% of Merck’s U.S. sales of Keytruda.

All eyes will be on Merck’s drug pipeline updates for 2026. This could include early results from a Phase 3 trial of a flu prevention product from Cidara Therapeutics, which the company acquired in November.

Merck may also have more deals up its sleeve: The Financial Times reported Thursday that the pharmaceutical company is in talks to buy Revolution Medicines, a cancer drug maker with a market capitalization of more than $20 billion.

Obesity will also remain a hot topic during the conference, as Novo Nordisk And Eli Lilly They are launching or preparing to launch GLP-1 pills, and other drugmakers need to catch up.

I’m looking for more details from Novo Nordisk on the launch of its Wegovy pill, which began reaching patients this week, and what the company plans to focus on next. Eli Lilly will also address what to expect from its own oral GLP-1 called orforglipron, which is expected to receive Food and Drug Administration approval in the first half of the year.

Both companies will also likely face questions about evolving GLP-1 market dynamics, including the direct-to-consumer channel and Medicare coverage for obesity drugs beginning in the middle of the year.

Names like Amgen, AstraZeneca And Pfizerwhich recently acquired obesity biotech Metsera, will also face questions about its ambitions in the weight loss drug market.

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