Pfizer’s 2026 forecast shows Metsera and Seagen deals will take time to pay off

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Pfizer on Tuesday forecast a modest forecast for 2026 as the company bets on longer-term investments in its pipeline to counter falling sales of Covid products and declines in older drugs.

These hurdles are neither surprising nor new for Pfizer, which has seen a dramatic decline in sales of Covid vaccines and antiviral drugs after generating record-breaking revenue during the pandemic. The drugmaker has been making deals of all sizes in recent years to develop new revenue streams, such as its recently completed $10 billion acquisition of obesity biotech Metsera and a whopping $43 billion collaboration with cancer drug maker Seagen in 2023.

However, the guidelines emphasize that these investments are far from paying off. Metsera, for example, brings with it a pipeline of drugs that are still in early stages of development.

Shares of the company fell nearly 5% on Tuesday. The stock is also down about 5% for the year.

The drugmaker expects adjusted earnings between $2.80 and $3 per share next year. That’s slightly below analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.05 per share for the year, according to LSEG.

Sales are expected to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, which would be largely unchanged compared to Pfizer’s new 2025 sales forecast of $62 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $61.59 billion in 2026, according to LSEG estimates.

The company said the weak sales outlook was due in part to declining sales of its Covid vaccine and antiviral pill Paxlovid. Pfizer forecasts sales of these products will fall by about $1.5 billion year-over-year to $5 billion in 2026.

Pfizer also pointed to another expected year-over-year decline in sales of about $1.5 billion as certain products lose market exclusivity. Some blockbuster drugs, like the company’s pneumonia vaccine Prevnar, are facing increased competition from rivals.

Pfizer’s patents are expected to expire primarily in 2026 and 2028, the company’s chief financial officer, Dave Denton, said in an investor call on Tuesday. He said the drugmaker expects sales to be hit by the expiration of $17 billion in patents and regulatory exclusive rights.

The blood thinner Eliquis, one of the company’s top sellers, will also have lower prices in Medicare starting next year after negotiations with the government under the Inflation Reduction Act. Some analysts also noted that the forecast likely reflects costs associated with the company’s recent acquisitions, including Metsera.

In a note Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott called the outlook “broadly expected.” He said Covid headwinds and research and development investments would be partially offset by the company’s ongoing restructuring.

On an investor call Tuesday, Pfizer said it exceeded its 2025 cost-cutting targets. The company is targeting more than $7 billion in cost cuts by 2027 and said Tuesday that it expects the bulk of those savings to occur by next year.

Meanwhile, Evan Seigerman, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said the slightly lower outlook for 2026 “leaves room.” [for] Adjustments given the uncertainty of vaccination policy.”

Pfizer and other drugmakers have had to grapple with changes to U.S. vaccination policy under Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic.

“Given the uncertainty surrounding HHS policy and infection rates, we welcome conservative estimates and cost savings … heading into the new year,” Seigerman said.

On the call, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that Food and Drug Administration comments on vaccinations “have no value” and “will not change the way we view our long-term investments in vaccines.” Bourla made no specific comments but said he believes “this anomaly will correct itself.”

Earlier this year, Pfizer reached a landmark drug pricing agreement with the Trump administration that included selling its existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed countries. Pfizer also guarantees the same MFN prices for its new drugs across Medicare, Medicaid and commercial payers.

In return, the company will receive a three-year exemption from President Donald Trump’s pharmaceutical-specific tariffs.

Denton said that “price compression and margin compression are embedded” in the company’s 2026 forecasts as the company looks to provide “deeper discounts” in its Medicaid business as part of the deal with Trump.