Abivax shares quickly became a major biotech takeover target
Europe’s best-performing blue-chip stock is widely expected to be bought by a larger rival in 2025. Analysts say the deal could be worth up to $23 billion.
AbivaxThe French biotech company, which is developing a treatment for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, saw its shares rise 1,681% last year, far exceeding its value Stoxx 600 index Second best performing stock, mining company Fresnillowhich increased by 453%.
The big question for analysts now seems to be when, not if, Abivax will announce a deal.
The shares, which were listed in 2015, were mostly between 10 and 20 euros, but it wasn’t until ten years later that a really strong upswing occurred. After Abivax announced the results of a late-stage study of an ulcerative colitis drug in July, shares soared 510% in a day, beating even the most optimistic expectations. Based on results like these, it could be a strategic acquisition for any major pharmaceutical company with an immunology and inflammation business.
Abivax’s lead and only active ingredient, obefazimod, was initially developed to treat HIV. However, researchers discovered that its anti-inflammatory effects could also affect other diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and began clinical trials.
In December, stocks rose even more as rumors emerged that the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical company, Eli Lilly, had its eye on taking over Abivax. Both companies repeatedly declined to comment on business development activities.
An imminent deal?
Analysts believe a deal could happen at any time.
Van Lanschot Kempen analyst Sebastiaan van der Schoot told CNBC that biotech companies often have “a relatively small number of employees and no experience selling a drug,” which he called “a completely different game” than developing such drugs.
“That’s why the pharmaceutical industry is contracting them to actually use their infrastructure,” he said.
The analyst added that he expects Abivax to fluctuate between where it is now and where it was when a takeover was first rumored, leading up to Monday’s annual JP Morgan Healthcare conference. where companies often announce big deals.
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Abivax shares rose sharply in 2025, far outperforming their European peers.
This comes at a time when Big Pharma has stepped up dealmaking in recent months as the sector faces a looming patent cliff that will see some of the world’s best-selling drugs lose exclusivity in the coming years.
Another factor that makes a deal more likely is Abivax CEO Marc de Garidel’s reputation as a deal-making executive. Previously, he led billion-dollar takeovers from biotech companies to pharmaceutical companies AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.
When asked about a possible acquisition, de Garidel said on CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” in December that the company is always “talking to Big Pharma” but that its job is to develop the best drug possible.
Abivax plans to file for U.S. regulatory approval by the end of 2026 and is targeting a possible launch in the third quarter of 2027, de Garidel said.
The company is well positioned to negotiate a favorable deal with a Big Pharma partner, said Stifel analyst Damien Choplain.
“Given the strength of the Phase III results and the scarcity of comparable assets, we believe a transaction could be completed prior to the maintenance data readout expected in the second quarter of 2026,” he said, referring to a second clinical trial of obefazimod that will test efficacy over 44 weeks instead of just eight weeks.
Choplain added that most transactions in the IBD space in the past have been for drug candidates in earlier stages of development. “Abivax meets all the requirements for a strategic acquisition,” he said.
Based on comparable transactions and estimated peak sales of 3 billion euros, Abivax’s valuation could be between 12 billion euros and 20 billion euros ($14 billion to $23 billion), Choplain told CNBC.
Recent deals in the IBD space include: Mercks Acquisition of Prometheus for $10.8 billion; Roches Acquired Telavant for $7.1 billion; and Eli Lilly buys Morphic for $3.2 billion. These deals were all assets earlier in development than Abivax’s obefazimod.
A potentially first-class treatment
Jefferies analyst Roger Song, who doesn’t cover Abivax per se but follows the IBD space closely from Boston, said investor optimism was due to both a potential multibillion-dollar market for IBD treatments and the drug candidate’s novel way of attacking the problem in multiple ways.
It’s even considered potentially the best treatment for ulcerative colitis, he told CNBC in December.
The July results of the obefazimod trial surprised investors as many were unaware of them The novel mechanism it uses microRNA, Song said.
A late-stage maintenance trial is expected in the second quarter of 2026.
Van der Schoot added that if Abivax is confident enough in these maintenance results, they could wait to purchase after the study is published, “because then they can charge a higher price.”
